Monday and Tuesday’s 1-1 Seattle v. LA Galaxy and LAFC v. Vancouver draws did little to affect Real Salt Lake’s playoff probability or postseason position, but the limited results DO provide clarity for RSL’s postseason future – WIN AND WE ARE IN.
During this final week of the 2021 MLS regular season, RSL doesn’t actually need a preponderance of help or particularly specific results from other MLS Western Conference matchups. According to http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/West.html, RSL would emerge from a win on Wednesday over Portland with a 97% chance of qualifying for the 2021 MLS Cup Playoffs, advancing to the postseason for the 11th time in the last 14 years.
Due to the MLS tiebreakers – 1) wins, 2) goal difference and 3) head-to-head, Interim RSL Head Coach Pablo Mastroeni’s team now has 100% clinching ability with a victory, at Rio Tinto Stadium, on Kyle Beckerman Night, against the visiting Portland Timbers.
However, a loss to the visiting Timbers drops the current probability to 17%, while a draw leaves the Utah side with only a 25% chance of playoff qualification.
RSL enters Wednesday’s match with a perfect 5-0-0 record following losses in the last 60 days, the entirety of Mastroeni’s tenure. However, Saturday’s 3-4 loss to San Jose continued an eight-game run of alternating results dating back to September 18 – W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L – a pattern, if continued Wednesday, should allow the Club and its supporters to breathe easy entering Sunday’s MLS “Decision Day” at rival Kansas City, where RSL could be fighting for HOME playoff game and the West overall 4-seed.
But the waters are turbulent entering Wednesday’s “Kyle Beckerman Night” festivities; Saturday’s surprising loss to San Jose was its first at home under Mastroeni, the Club now 4-1-0 at Rio Tinto Stadium with Pablo at the helm, and 9-3-4 overall this season. Earlier this year, RSL dropped nine points from winning positions at home under former head coach Freddy Juarez; giving up the 1-0 lead Saturday led to the first dropped points (3) under Mastroeni.
In their last meeting, Portland decimated visiting RSL 6-1 back on September 25. In the Timbers’ last visit to Rio Tinto Stadium, late last year, RSL surged to a 2-0 lead on goals from Douglas Martinez and Albert Rusnák, prior to a late Portland goal for a 2-1 final.
All-time, RSL has been dominant at home since moving into Rio Tinto Stadium in its history, with a 123-34-55 won/loss/tie mark since moving into the Sandy venue 13 years ago. Across all competitions, RSL is 158-50-71 (W-L-T) at the place known affectionately as the “RioT,” with a 6-2-3 mark in the MLS Cup Playoffs, 8-1-2 in CONCACAF Champions League, 8-4-2 in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup, and 0-1-0 in Leagues Cup. In international exhibition play, RSL is only 13-8-9 (W-L-T).
During Mastroeni’s two-month tenure, Real Salt Lake has won six of 11 following the opening 1-4 loss at Vancouver, for which he was coach of record 36 hours after the Juarez resignation. Mastroeni, the former Colorado Rapids mainstay has posted a 6-6-0 overall record (W-L-T), with a sparkling 4-1-0 mark at its Rio Tinto Stadium home and a dismal 2-5-0 road record as part of its overall 4-10-2 away ledger this season.
As mentioned, RSL is a perfect 5-0-0 under Mastroeni in games immediately following a loss, rebounding to capture the full three points in the 90 minutes after each setback, feats emblematic of the grit, guile and poise exhibited by the current group.
These stakes arriving on a night in which RSL will honor Mastroeni protégé, former Miami/Colorado/USA teammate and RSL icon Kyle Beckerman for his stellar career in a match televised nationally on ESPN2, with 8:00 p.m. pregame festivities including various in-stadium and on-field ceremonies featuring Beckerman, who changed the Club’s culture and competitive makeup upon arrival on the Wasatch Front in July, 2007.
Win Wednesday, and Sunday’s venomous, vitriol-filled trip to Kansas City becomes slightly less so. Fail to capture the full three points in a true “must win” over Portland, Sunday’s “Decision Day” trip to the site of a heartbreaking MLS Cup 2013 loss and the 2015 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup Semifinal setback could loom overwhelmingly large, with various combinations and permutations involving 6 teams separated by 5 points for 4 spots – along with seeding manipulation – dictating everyone’s postseason fate.
