Climbing mountains in Utah is no new idea. There are few states so synonymously linked to the geography of its landscapes and the activities in which its people participate, inspired by them.
Fittingly, the Beehive State’s beloved soccer Club - nestled under the shadows of the gargantuan Wasatch Mountain Range - now finds itself with its own mountain to climb. With four matches remaining in the 2023 Major League Soccer regular season, Real Salt Lake controls its postseason destiny; will it finish near the top, two points out of second place with a month to go? Or could it slide towards a cluttered playoff line that is just a few points behind?
Several paths present themselves for RSL to reach its goal of a 13th playoff berth in 16 years, but whatever trail the Claret-and-Cobalt blazes to reach the top, it must go through both Los Angeles teams, as well as its two biggest rivals in Sporting KC and the Colorado Rapids to secure a top-4 seed and home-field advantage in the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs First Round.
This feeling of uncertainty toward the tail end of the season is nothing new to Real Salt Lake supporters. RSL’s postseason fate was finally decided on the last game of the season in each of the past two years. The 2021 campaign was capped off with the dynamic “Damiracle” in Kansas City, while 2022 with a resounding 3-1 win against Portland at America First Field.
Although it’s unlikely (fingers crossed) that this year the Claret-and-Cobalt faithful will have to wait until the October 21 “Decision Day” to find out its postseason prospects, a myriad of combinations and permutations affect our efforts to figure out how exactly RSL will qualify for the playoffs. At the end of the season, every single game matters when it comes to playoff qualification and seeding.
Here is the 2023 roadmap to RSL’s path to the MLS playoffs:
October 1 - Real Salt Lake at LAFC - Apple TV Link
October 7 - Sporting KC at Real Salt Lake - Apple TV Link, Ticket Link
October 14 - Real Salt Lake at LA Galaxy - Apple TV Link
October 21 - Real Salt Lake at Colorado Rapids - Apple TV Link
While much of RSL’s journey takes place outside the State of Utah, Sat., October 7 will give fans one last opportunity to turn America First Field into a fortress this MLS regular season.
Fans are encouraged to wear red to the game for a “Red Out” and the Club can’t wait to thank you for all your support this season during Fan Appreciation Night.
Tickets are still available, and you won’t want to miss this rivalry match with massive playoff implications against Sporting KC. Tickets are available here.
Current MLS Western Conference Standings As Of September 28, 2023
Club - Points - GP
- St. Louis - 53 - 31
- LAFC - 45 - 30
- Seattle - 45 - 30
- Houston - 43 - 30
- RSL - 43 - 30
- Vancouver - 42 - 30
- Portland - 42 - 31
- San Jose - 41 - 31
- FC Dallas - 40 - 30
Playoff Line -
- Sporting KC - 38 - 31
- Minnesota - 37 - 30
- Austin FC - 35 - 30
- LA Galaxy - 34 - 29
- Colorado - 23 - 30 (Eliminated)
Outlook:
The good news for RSL fans is that according to the statistical models generated at SportsClubStats.com, the Club is in more than an excellent position to qualify for the postseason, with approximately a 97% probability as we head to LAFC this Sunday.
RSL’s easiest path to the playoffs is to win two of its remaining four games, giving it 49 points on the season and a guaranteed spot in the playoffs.
However, even if RSL only earns one draw in its last four games, the Club has an 81% chance of advancing to the playoffs. If RSL loses all of its last four games, the Club still has a 43% chance of qualifying.
One win in the next four gives the Club a 99.9% chance of continuing one of the most consistent postseason qualification eras in the history of Major League Soccer.
While nothing is ever certain in life, sports or MLS, this season’s outlook going into the final stretch is certainly brighter than those in the past two. At this point, basically each of the last four games provides a “win and you're in,” scenario for RSL.
Various results outside of RSL’s own last four matches could also determine how securely RSL qualifies earlier or later, depending on points lost or gained by the glut of West rivals.
In a vastly competitive MLS Western Conference - where the Claret-and-Cobalt are currently two points out of second place and three points away from ninth, part of a 10-team glut narrowly separated, with everyone playing each other down the stretch - it is quite important to see the context of the conference holistically.
Below is a team by team breakdown of the MLS Western Conference with an RSL angle, postseason projection and potential Decision Day drama:
1. St. Louis
THE RSL ANGLE: St. Louis would be the probable RSL opponent in the Conference Semifinals should both emerge from the best-of-3 First Round, assuming RSL settles in the 4/5 seed. RSL won at St. Louis during a June midweek match at CITY Park, with Damir Kreilach scoring twice in a 3-1 win. During Matchday Four of this season, RSL dropped an 0-4 home decision in its first-ever contest against STL, with the expansion side scoring all four goals in the second half.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: St. Louis appears to be running away from the pack to capture the West’s top seed, although the surprising expansion side has cooled off of late, winning just one of its last five contests.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: A very specific combination of results between St. Louis and Seattle could conspire to create a Decision Day battle for the top spot in the West, with the Sounders traveling to CITY Park on Sat., Oct. 21. At the very least, one if not both of these teams will be in need of the full three points to establish a favorable top-4 seed on the Western side of the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs bracket.
2. LAFC
THE RSL ANGLE: RSL heads to LAFC this weekend for a rare Sunday match (Apple TV+ / FS1) looking to reverse the results of two previous 2023 meetings with the defending MLS Cup Champions, RSL dropping a home meeting on May 13 in MLS play along with an 0-4 Leagues Cup loss at BMO Stadium on August 8 in the Round of 16. All-time, RSL has won just once in seven visits to LAFC, as the 2018 Playoffs will be remembered for Damir Kreilach’s “Karate Kick” en route to a 3-2 road win. RSL has defeated LAFC just twice in 14 all-time meetings, with the 2020 reg. season match in Utah the lone Wasatch win.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: LAFC kicks off a 4-game/10-day slate with Wednesday’s “Campeones Cup” match against UANL Tigres (Liga MX) at home, with three of the four contests in LA (v RSL, v MIN) prior to a trip to playoff hopeful Austin on Sat. Oct. 7. LAFC should finish in the top three in the West, although both its home MLS contests feature the two of the West’s best road teams – RSL and Minnesota.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: LAFC heads to Vancouver on Sat., Oct. 21 in a match that could determine Audi MLS Cup Playoff seeding for a pair of West Top-4 contenders.
3. Seattle Sounders
THE RSL ANGLE: Seattle could potentially usurp expansion side St. Louis for the top spot in the West with a dynamic combination of results for the two sides, which would make the rival Sounders RSL’s likely Conference Semifinal opponent should the pair advance from the best-of-3 first round series. RSL dropped an 0-2 reg. season contest at Seattle in March on Matchday Two of the 2023 season, and drew with the Sounders 0-0 at America First Field in late April, before a dominant 3-0 home win for RSL in the first Leagues Cup match for each side on July 22, with goals by Chicho Arango, Jefferson Savarino and Rubio Rubin.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Seattle has heated up at the right time this year, as it often does, one of three West teams unbeaten in the last five contests. A top 3 seed is likely, as the Sounders will be favored in each of its three MLS contests prior to Decision Day in St. Louis.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: Perennial contender Seattle travels to St. Louis on the final day of the 2023 MLS Regular Season with an outside shot at the top seed, and very likely jockeying with LAFC for either the 2 or 3 seeds.
4. Houston Dynamo
THE RSL ANGLE: Houston kicks off four games in 10 days with its victorious performance in this week’s Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup Final at Inter Miami, a game that no doubt stings Claret-and-Cobalt faithful still lamenting the extra-time Semifinal loss in late August to the eventual champions. Houston is one of the teams – along with Portland, Vancouver, San Jose – battling with RSL for the 4-5-6 seeds in the West, a race that will likely see each team separated by a point or two with all the head-to-head battles in the final month.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Dominant at home and typically poor on the road, Houston will need to capture the full six points in its matches at Montreal and against Colorado to harbor any hopes of a top 4 seed in the West. Hosting in-state rival Dallas three days after celebrating the Open Cup Final in Miami and then traveling to Portland on Decision Day will pose massive challenges for the home-dominant Dynamo, who project to finish in the sixth slot on the Western side of the bracket.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: Houston travels to Portland on the final day of the 2023 reg. season, with the two sides battling at Providence Park in a match that will have massive implications on mid-table seeding in the West.
5. Real Salt Lake
THE RSL ANGLE: RSL heads to LAFC this weekend for a rare Sunday match (Apple TV+ / FS1) looking to reverse the results of two previous meetings with the defending MLS Cup Champions this year, RSL dropping a home meeting on May 13 in MLS play along with an 0-4 Leagues Cup loss at BMO Stadium on August 8 in the Round of 16. All-time, RSL has won just once in seven visits to LAFC, as the 2018 Playoffs will be remembered for Damir Kreilach’s “Karate Kick” en route to a 3-2 road victory. RSL has defeated LAFC just twice in 14 all-time meetings, with the 2020 reg. season match in Utah the lone Wasatch win.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Based on this year’s home/away PPG, the math says RSL should finish fifth in the West. However, with three of its four contests against teams on the outside looking in – and the final two against likely-eliminated LA Galaxy / Colorado, vital road points could be in the offing for RSL to capture a top-4 seed in the West.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: RSL travels to suburban Denver looking to complete a rare 4-game sweep of its Rocky Mountain Cup rival Rapids, with RSL boasting a pair of late-May wins at Colorado in MLS (3-2) and Open Cup (1-0), prior to the early September 2-0 home win that secured the fan-created Rocky Mountain Cup for the 12th time in 15 seasons. Back in 2013, RSL secured the full 9 points from 3 MLS games against expansion brethren Chivas USA; can it complete the feat again this year against Colorado?
6. Vancouver Whitecaps
THE RSL ANGLE: A vaunted Vancouver team enters the stretch run boasting a game in hand over RSL and the other mid-table West contenders, drawing the final road match of its run of 7 straight away 2-2 at Colorado. Vancouver and RSL will no doubt spend the remainder of the 2023 MLS reg. season scoreboard watching each other’s results in a battle for the 4 seed and home-field advantage in the First Round.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: A Cascadia Cup road match at Seattle arrives on the heels of home contests against D.C. United and St. Louis in a busy 10-day stretch prior to the FIFA break, with the Whitecaps modeled to earn seven more points this season and finishing in that 4 spot, just ahead of RSL and others. The math might not hold, however, with the ‘Caps slated to play the top 3 West teams – STL, SEA and LAFC – in their final four matchdays.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: A home game on the BC Place turf against LAFC on Decision Day could have massive implications for the entire West bracket, or it could only affect the Whitecaps, depending on results in the next few weeks.
7. Portland Timbers
THE RSL ANGLE: Galvanized by the interim appointment of former RSL assistant Miles Joseph to the head coaching chair, Portland is the hottest team in the West, unbeaten in six since Joseph replaced Giovanni Savarese. Additionally, the Timbers boast an 18-game unbeaten run in the last four September slates. With only three games remaining, including two away at LA Galaxy and Montreal prior to a Decision Day home match, the Timbers control their destiny and will arrive at either the First Round or the Wild Card round full of confidence in the West.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The math says Portland will end on 46 points, tied with San Jose and Houston, with the goal differential and goals scored tiebreakers forcing the red-hot Timbers into the Wild Card round.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: Portland hosts Houston at Providence Park on Sat., Oct. 21, two teams with strong home and woeful road form throughout the 2023 campaigns. Loser of this match likely drops into Wild Card status for an Oct. 25/26 contest in the 8/9 seed.
8. San Jose Earthquakes
THE RSL ANGLE: San Jose’s dismal road performances to this point in 2023 project to provide little to no resistance against Minnesota and Dallas, two teams chasing RSL for the 4-5-6 range in the West. The Earthquakes have lost just once in their last five contests, however, with a win over RSL – proving to be a tough out no matter the locale.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: San Jose seems to be running out of matches at a time it wishes it had a little more runway, the ‘Quakes projecting to be a West Wild Card contestant, likely on the road instead of hosting at PayPal Park.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: San Jose hosts Austin FC on the final day of 2023 in a game that could determine fates for not just the Quakes and Verde, but for multiple other West sides as well.
9. FC Dallas
THE RSL ANGLE: Dallas’ midweek road win at RSL last week buoyed its postseason chances with five games remaining on the schedule to wreak havoc in the West. Unbeaten in its last five contests, as well as a favorable schedule, the Hoops could heat up at the right time and insert themselves into the conversation, battling RSL for the 4-5-6 seeds.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Earning the draw midweek at Philadelphia in its extra game in hand over most contenders convinces the math to say Dallas will likely finish in Wild Card range, probably hosting the 8/9 contest in the West. With two of its final four away at Houston and LA Galaxy, the recent uptick in road form despite Dallas’ road struggles this season, the climb into the 1-7 seeds will be steep.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: Dallas finishes its 2023 reg. season with a trip to Carson to face the LA Galaxy, who may or may not be eliminated coming out of the FIFA break.
10. Sporting KC
THE RSL ANGLE: RSL hosts Sporting Kansas City on Sat., Oct. 7 in the Claret-and-Cobalt’s home reg. season finale, with a full-stadium RED OUT on “Fan Appreciation Night” sure to add electricity to an already critical contest for RSL, as the Utah side looks to re-establish America First Field as the home-dominant fortress it has been for most of the last 15 years. With the history between these two teams, however, all the records can be thrown out; RSL and SKC simply do not like each other, especially with the 2021 Decision Day “Damiracle” still fresh in everyone’s competitive mind.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Kansas City appears to be another team that might have run out of runway late, with its recent uptick in form unable to overcome a deep hole dug during the 2023 campaign’s early days. With only three games remaining, including two on the road at STL and RSL, Peter Vermes’ team will need an upset in one of those in order to make its Decision Day match matter for playoff implications.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: The World’s Most Polite Rivalry sees Minnesota travel to Kansas City on the League’s ultimate Matchday, with both Sporting and United likely needing a win to not only knock the other out, but to possibly sneak into a West Wild Card match by leapfrogging a flagging side this late in the season.
11. Minnesota United
THE RSL ANGLE: Minnesota and RSL each share three opponents in the season’s final four games, with RSL nursing a six-point advantage in the standings over the Loons. Both sides travel to LAFC and host Sporting KC in the campaign’s last few weeks, with RSL traveling to face the Galaxy in a makeup game on the FIFA weekend, while Minnesota hosts the new-look Galaxy and its recent signature late-game heroics.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: With just two draws in their last five contests, including the allowance of three unanswered against the Galaxy to turn a 3-1 lead into a 3-4 loss, Minnesota needs to overperform the mathematical models in order to try and find its way into the postseason, even as a Wild Card 8/9 seed.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: The Loons travel to (polite) rival Sporting KC on Sat., Oct. 21, each side hoping to have something to play for, even improbably. Minnesota’s road form throughout 2023 could make this one worth watching.
12. Austin FC
THE RSL ANGLE: Austin’s Oct. 7 home game against LAFC – a rematch of last year’s West Final – could be critical to RSL’s seeing aspirations, especially if RSL can steal a result at LAFC this weekend. Verde also finishes its four-game stretch run on Decision Day against San Jose, who may or may not have made a run that threatens RSL’s mid-table standing a month from now.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The YETI boys will likely need to sweep its final four contests to pull itself into the playoff picture, with too many home draws of late and dismal road form throughout 2023. With the Rapids, DCU and San Jose on the slate though, its possible in a league where anyone can beat anyone else on any given day.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: Verde finish the year at San Jose on Sat., Oct. 21, potentially needing the full three points to vault themselves into the Wild Card round. With 50+ consecutive sellouts at Q2 Stadium, if they can get to the dance – watch out.
13. LA Galaxy
THE RSL ANGLE: The Galaxy host RSL during the October FIFA break on Sat., Oct. 14 in SoCal, in a game rescheduled from late August due to Hurricane Hilary. RSL has split each of its two previous 2023 contests with the Galaxy, a pair of 3-2 results at America First Field a week apart in late May/early June, RSL winning the Open Cup Quarterfinal on June 7.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: The new-look LA Galaxy hit the stretch run with several new faces and five games remaining, likely needing 12-14 points to factor in the 2023 MLS postseason. All five contests for the Galaxy oppose current Western Conference playoff contenders, with three of the five at home, where the Galaxy are +.500 thus far.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: The Galaxy host Dallas on Sat., Oct. 21 in a game that should affect seeding for somebody; will both the Gs and FCD need the full three points to factor?
14. Colorado Rapids
THE RSL ANGLE: RSL arrives in Colorado for the final 2023 reg. season match looking to secure the full three points to reward the Claret-and-Cobalt faithful, who have witnessed three RSL wins already this season against its Rocky Mountain Cup rivals. RSL is also hoping to capture a rare fourth win over the same opponent in a single season. The 2013 RSL side secured the full 9 points in 3 games against expansion brethren Chivas USA, and can exceed that milestone with an Oct. 21 road win in suburban Denver.
POSTSEASON PROJECTION: Colorado is already eliminated from 2023 postseason contention, but can definitely play a spoiler role, as all four of its remaining games involve playoff hopefuls. The Rapids came back to draw at home with Vancouver midweek, now hosting Austin this weekend prior to road trips at Dallas and Houston, before finishing the year with RSL at home on Decision Day.
DECISION DAY DRAMA: RSL already owns 12 Rocky Mountain Cup titles in the last 15 years, but the three points available at Pablo Mastroeni’s former home could provide RSL home-field advantage and a top 4 seed on the Western side of the 2023 Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
As Real Salt Lake sits at the base of the MLS Playoff mountain, what awaits at the top is a false summit of sorts for the ultimate prize, MLS Cup.
After Decision Day on Saturday, October 21, the MLS postseason begins with the Wild Card matches on October 25 and 26.
Then the First Round Best-of-3 series runs through October 28-November 12. If RSL advances/qualifies for the first round, the Club will secure a home playoff game. More info for playoff tickets will be released once dates and opponent are known.
The Conference Semifinals and Conference Finals follow between November 25-December 3. MLS Cup presented by Audi is then scheduled for December 9.
Real Salt Lake face a long and daunting journey to reach the ultimate prize of a second MLS Cup, not to mention the present challenge of qualifying for the playoffs. If there’s anything certain about Utahn’s, however, and their soccer Club, it’s that there’s no mountain too tall for them to summit.
Especially if you #BELIEVE.
