RSL Analysis and Storylines: Touchpoints for Improvement, and Big Performances Needed in St. Paul

Welcome back to storylines

RSL head into its most definitive tie of the 2024 MLS season with a trip to St. Paul, Minnesota on Saturday to visit Minnesota United in the second and potential elimination leg of its Round One, best-of-three series in the 2024 Audi MLS Cup playoffs.

Pablo Mastroeni’s charges head into this critical fixture on the back of a difficult, disappointing and unexpected penalty shootout defeat in the first leg at America First Field on Tuesday.

The Claret-and-Cobalt now need a win at the weekend to force a return-home third and final leg in the series to retain any hopes and chances of advancing beyond the current round. Anything besides victory on Saturday - in regulation or shootout - would spell postseason elimination for Mastroeni’s men, with 2024’s high hopes and expectations extinguished in anticlimactic fashion.

The stakes are high, perhaps the end is nigh. So without further ado, in this iteration of storylines, we review a few analysis points and touchpoints for improvements, as well as compelling facts and narratives ahead of Saturday night’s crucial showdown.

Storylines

• Tactical improvements, better execution: RSL’s first-leg defeat featured some worrying intricate tactical signs and details all compounded by an alarming degree of profligacy in front of goal. Addressing this will represent the biggest challenge ahead of Saturday for Pablo.

• Big performances: The midweek result featured a reinvigorated goalkeeping performance from Zac MacMath. He alone, however, will not be enough to force a return leg third leg as has already been evidenced. The onus lies on the rest of the team now to follow the footsteps paved by their veteran shotstopper.

Where to Watch

You can catch RSL vs Minnesota on Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass right here

Kickoff is at 7:00 p.m. MT on Saturday, Nov. 2.

The Deep Dive

• Tactical improvements, better execution: RSL’s first-leg defeat featured some worrying intricate tactical signs and details all compounded by an alarming degree of profligacy in front of goal. Addressing this will represent the biggest challenge ahead of Saturday for Pablo.

RSL vs Minnesota round one. Let’s discuss.

There were a few things distasteful about Tuesday night’s first-leg defeat, or more meticulously, the manner of it. That much, at the very least, would have been obvious.

The ensuing scoreline and result, as one would expect, no doubt cast a grim shadow for supporters on the rest, and indeed the entirety, of the evening. But, to keen observers at least, some of the underlying developments and intricacies of the team’s performance and approach would have left a bit more to be desired. Head coach Pablo Mastroeni echoed some of these concerns in his subsequent post-match conference, explaining,

“We're creating some really good opportunities, and whether it's their goalkeeper or [our own] lack of execution in front of goal, I think that is what's [ultimately] costing us,” Mastroeni admitted in front of the assembled media.

"There were a couple of really clear opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net and we're just not getting that. We’re not making that final play. And when you can't do that, it’s difficult to win games, and it's obviously going to go to penalties.”

RSL enjoyed a total of six shots on target on the evening, equal to the number afforded by Minnesota, from an overall tally of 11 shots throughout the 90 minutes, whilst also managing to enjoy a marginally higher xG (expected goals) figure compared to the visitors (1.3 to 1.2) by the end of the contest according to a statistical match report published on FBref.

A separate report, this time published on FotMob, further revealed that the Claret-and-Cobalt also enjoyed a greater number of big chances created and subsequently missed throughout the game, mainly as a result of the team’s second-half exertions, highlighting an alarming level of profligacy that showed itself amongst the RSL ranks on Tuesday night.

Midfielder Diego Luna proved the most capable and culpable, squandering two of the team’s biggest chances either side of halftime with a shot from close range early in the game tipped away at the near post by the left foot of Dayne St. Clair, before seeing a one-on-one opportunity against the Canadian shot-stopper also come to naught. In short, it wasn’t the Claret-and-Cobalt’s best night in front of goal against the Minnesota goalkeeper.

But a closer examination of the game would reveal even more intricate, disturbing details. Head Coach Eric Ramsay set up his Loons side in a compact 5-4-1 formation, sitting deep and tactically putting up an organized, low defensive block to close down the space between the lines and thwart opposition offensive attempts by barely granting them any time and space to work with. This meant that, throughout the first half, in particular, RSL struggled to break down and penetrate the visitors’ defensive shape.

During buildup situations from back to front, whenever the visitors pressed higher upfield, the hosts struggled to build up and play through the center of the pitch against Minnesota’s committed high press and were resigned a lot of the time to having to make its successful ball and play progressions through the wide channels. Mastroeni’s men also struggled to maintain possession of the ball in higher zones when they did manage to reach there during the first half which consequently meant the team was unable to sustain high percentage attacks in the Loons’ defensive third and thus was barely able to create enough clear chances during the first half, being consigned to passing the ball and rotating backward a lot of the time. It meant Luna’s saved effort 12 minutes in would be the only real chance RSL created throughout the opening 45 minutes.

While the first half between both sides was more controlled, the second was more high-octane, and so it meant RSL didn’t start consistently creating chances until the second 45 minutes when the game became more end-to-end and the back-and-forth, high-intensity nature of the half led to a few more gaps opening up in the visitors’ defensive structure. RSL have impressed mightily this season during transitional phases of play but the difficulty in breaking down more resolute, dogged deep block opponents has represented a worrying theme for most of the campaign, something Mastroeni and his coaching staff also observed and tried to rectify at halftime on Tuesday,

“I think that's been our issue as of late, predictability in the box and getting [our attackers] Chicho, Crooksy, Diego in the box,” Mastroeni explained. “So that was what we talked about at halftime, our tens coming closer together centrally.”

“It's been a theme, I think, where we got a lot of players in the front line that want to get on the ball, but they don't. We're not doing it in dangerous areas or we're not making plays from that… if we want to score we need numbers in the box, we need to be more brave, and we got to shoot from outside because possession is great, but for me it's what you do from that position that really matters. So we got a couple of days, we’ll have to look at the game and figure out a way to be more threatening in front of goal.”

With the Loons already a win ahead in the tie, expectations will be for Ramsay’s men to replicate their dogged, deep block, playing as they have been if not even more so with a low defensive setup to try and snuff out RSL’s chances and attacks. Going into Saturday night’s decider in St. Paul, this constitutes the biggest task ahead for Pablo and the team to find a solution through which the team can finally sustain high-chance attacks and penetrate deep setups, and fast, if RSL are to harbor any hopes of forcing a third and final leg next week at America First Field and progressing to the Conference semifinals.

The team’s finishing must also constitute a point for improvement, allowances have been made in previous situations throughout the season but in a game of this much gravity and importance there surely can be no margin for error. No excuse for failing to deliver. You either perform or live with the consequences of a lack thereof, and Saturday will provide the ultimate test of will and mettle.

• Big performances: The midweek result featured a reinvigorated goalkeeping performance from Zac MacMath. He alone, however, will not be enough to force a return leg third leg as has already been evidenced. The onus lies on the rest of the team now to follow the footsteps paved by their veteran shot-stopper.

Tuesday’s result and performance, despite the collective disappointment, would have been something of a redemption for Zac MacMath. A redemptive arc. Absolution and vindication in what has been a sometimes trying season for RSL’s veteran goalkeeper.

The former Vancouver shotstopper has endured somewhat of a mixed campaign throughout the year, having been shuttled in and out of the first team with understudy 19-year-old Gavin Beavers. But against Minnesota, MacMath delivered arguably his best showing yet in a Claret-and-Cobalt shirt.

In a comprehensive, otherworldly performance showing, the 33-year-old completed the night with a total of six saves, resulting in zero concessions from an xGOT (expected goals on target) of 1.68 over 90 minutes, including double, back-to-back saves on two separate occasions, 10 recoveries, as well as four defensive actions outside the box and an 89 percent long and short pass accuracy overall to keep the scores level and give his team a chance within the game. RSL’s goalkeeper also came up huge in the ensuing penalty shootout as the only one of both shot-stoppers to make a save, diving early to his left to keep out Michael Boxall’s low right-footed effort. Mastroeni was effusive in his praise for MacMath in the aftermath of the match saying,

“Zac played like the Zac I know. He kept us in the game, and he stood on his head back there for us. I can't speak highly enough about his preparedness. After five or six games not being in there to come in and then stand on his head like he did tonight, you know he's got it in him… he’s a very talented goalkeeper, and I think tonight he showed his class.”

Indeed, RSL’s veteran goalkeeper shone on Tuesday as the team’s undoubted best performer. The onus now on the rest of the team lies in matching and perhaps even superseding such a level of performance.

Admittedly it represents a high degree of pressure, but alas, such is the nature of the sport and its industry. The reality of professional sports, and indeed professionalism in nigh any department, typically is one of a high-pressure setting, a results business, and nothing unlike what these players are already used to. And besides, as this author never fails to remind his readers, pressure makes diamonds and nothing worthwhile ever comes easy.

The errors and allowances accounted for on Tuesday cannot be repeated and allowed for again at the weekend in what is expected to be a difficult, unforgiving environment.

In attack, Captain Chicho Arango will be once again expected to lead the line in his desperate bid to break his ongoing goal drought. Alongside him will be midfielders Luna, who has been the team’s most in-form player over the previous few games, Matt Crooks, Diogo Gonçalves, Braian Ojeda, Emeka Eneli, Dominik Marczuk, and more. In defense, experienced centerback Justen Glad will be expected to marshall the backline with Colombian Brayan Vera also expected to return to the starting XI after completing the last of his three-game suspension during Tuesday’s opener. Jamaica international Javain Brown will also be expected to return to his more natural role at right-back while Greek defender Alex Katranis will be required to be just as industrious in attack as in defense to provide width on the left-hand side and help unlock what again will be an expectedly difficult and dogged Minnesota defense to break down.

Saturday won’t be an easy task, but with the personnel at their disposal, Mastroeni and RSL certainly have enough tools and resources to emerge victorious. And indeed they need to be, to force a third game and prevent the club’s 2024 campaign ending in arguable anticlimactic fashion.

It can be done. It need be done, needs must, and if there is any team that can, it's this one.

One final chance to rectify the errors of the past and lead the club into what it hopes will be the beginning of a new, glorious era. The time, as is often said, is now.